Premier League 2025-2026 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Sabah Baku	33	78	62.2	+15.8Outperforming ++	2	+1.9	+13.9	0:1 vs Qarabag (+2.0)	0:1 vs Imisli FK (-2.3)
2	Turan Tovuz	34	60	53.9	+6.1Outperforming ++	5	+3.0	+3.1	0:1 vs Neftci Baku (+1.9)	3:2 vs Shamakhi (-1.7)
3	Araz	33	46	42.9	+3.1Outperforming	6	+4.8	-1.6	1:2 vs Turan Tovuz (+1.8)	0:1 vs Imisli FK (-1.6)
4	Imisli FK	33	34	32.1	+1.9On expectation	10	-7.2	+9.1	0:1 vs Sabah Baku (+2.5)	0:2 vs Sumqayit (-1.2)
5	Neftci Baku	33	59	57.4	+1.6On expectation	3	-4.4	+6.0	2:1 vs Qarabag (+2.2)	2:3 vs Imisli FK (-2.1)
6	Sumqayit	33	41	40.3	+0.7On expectation	7	-1.1	+1.8	0:1 vs Qarabag (+2.4)	0:1 vs Shamakhi (-1.7)
7	Shamakhi	33	38	38.2	-0.2On expectation	9	-1.0	+0.8	2:1 vs Zira (+2.1)	1:4 vs Kapaz (-1.9)
8	Mingachevir	1	0	0.6	-0.6On expectation	13	0.0	-0.6	2:0 vs Gabala (+-0.6)	2:0 vs Gabala (-0.6)
9	Qarabag	33	69	71.8	-2.8Underperforming	1	-3.0	+0.2	1:5 vs Neftci Baku (+1.3)	1:0 vs Kapaz (-2.5)
10	Zira	33	53	55.8	-2.8Underperforming	4	-1.3	-1.5	2:3 vs Sumqayit (+1.4)	2:1 vs Shamakhi (-1.8)
11	Kapaz	33	27	30.5	-3.5Underperforming	11	-3.6	+0.1	0:2 vs Qarabag (+2.6)	4:1 vs Karvan (-1.8)
12	Gabala	35	31	39.4	-8.4Underperforming −−	8	-4.0	-4.4	0:4 vs Shamakhi (+2.0)	0:1 vs Imisli FK (-1.6)
13	Karvan	33	15	23.5	-8.5Underperforming −−	12	-6.0	-2.5	1:0 vs Shamakhi (+2.1)	0:3 vs Imisli FK (-1.7)

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Sabah Baku	33	78	62.2	+15.8Outperforming ++	2	+1.9	+13.9	0:1 vs Qarabag (+2.0)	0:1 vs Imisli FK (-2.3)
2	Turan Tovuz	34	60	53.9	+6.1Outperforming ++	5	+3.0	+3.1	0:1 vs Neftci Baku (+1.9)	3:2 vs Shamakhi (-1.7)
3	Araz	33	46	42.9	+3.1Outperforming	6	+4.8	-1.6	1:2 vs Turan Tovuz (+1.8)	0:1 vs Imisli FK (-1.6)
4	Imisli FK	33	34	32.1	+1.9On expectation	10	-7.2	+9.1	0:1 vs Sabah Baku (+2.5)	0:2 vs Sumqayit (-1.2)
5	Neftci Baku	33	59	57.4	+1.6On expectation	3	-4.4	+6.0	2:1 vs Qarabag (+2.2)	2:3 vs Imisli FK (-2.1)
6	Sumqayit	33	41	40.3	+0.7On expectation	7	-1.1	+1.8	0:1 vs Qarabag (+2.4)	0:1 vs Shamakhi (-1.7)
7	Shamakhi	33	38	38.2	-0.2On expectation	9	-1.0	+0.8	2:1 vs Zira (+2.1)	1:4 vs Kapaz (-1.9)
8	Mingachevir	1	0	0.6	-0.6On expectation	13	0.0	-0.6	2:0 vs Gabala (+-0.6)	2:0 vs Gabala (-0.6)
9	Qarabag	33	69	71.8	-2.8Underperforming	1	-3.0	+0.2	1:5 vs Neftci Baku (+1.3)	1:0 vs Kapaz (-2.5)
10	Zira	33	53	55.8	-2.8Underperforming	4	-1.3	-1.5	2:3 vs Sumqayit (+1.4)	2:1 vs Shamakhi (-1.8)
11	Kapaz	33	27	30.5	-3.5Underperforming	11	-3.6	+0.1	0:2 vs Qarabag (+2.6)	4:1 vs Karvan (-1.8)
12	Gabala	35	31	39.4	-8.4Underperforming −−	8	-4.0	-4.4	0:4 vs Shamakhi (+2.0)	0:1 vs Imisli FK (-1.6)
13	Karvan	33	15	23.5	-8.5Underperforming −−	12	-6.0	-2.5	1:0 vs Shamakhi (+2.1)	0:3 vs Imisli FK (-1.7)