Araz vs Turan Tovuz
Premier League, Azerbaijan · 2026-09-13 · 14:30 CET
LDLLL
WDWWLThe score model made a Turan Tovuz win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Araz 0.93 – 1.29 Turan Tovuz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Araz win | 27.6% | 18.1% | +9.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 26.3% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Turan Tovuz win | 45.5% | 55.6% | -10.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.2% | 47.5% | -9.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.4% | 28.1% | -9.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 43.1% | 47.8% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.6% | 32.2% | -6.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Araz 41.7 / Turan Tovuz 44.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Araz vs Turan Tovuz in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.