Tirol vs Hartberg
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-09-13 · 14:30 CET
WDLLW
WDDWLThe score model made a Hartberg win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tirol 1.24 – 1.30 Hartberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tirol win | 34.0% | 45.1% | -11.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.2% | 27.2% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| Hartberg win | 36.9% | 27.7% | +9.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | 51.7% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.1% | 31.1% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | 56.1% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.3% | 37.4% | -8.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tirol 35.1 / Hartberg 35.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Tirol vs Hartberg in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.