Sturm Graz vs LASK
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-09-13 · 17:00 CET
LWLWW
WLDLWThe score model made a Sturm Graz win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sturm Graz 1.58 – 1.31 LASK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz win | 42.8% | 27.5% | +15.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 24.0% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| LASK win | 30.4% | 48.5% | -18.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | 63.8% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.8% | 43.2% | -10.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | 64.3% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.5% | 43.4% | -3.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sturm Graz 35.1 / LASK 35 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sturm Graz vs LASK in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.