Altach vs Grazer AK
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-09-12 · 17:00 CET
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LDWDDThe score model made an Altach win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Altach 1.41 – 1.09 Grazer AK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altach win | 43.0% | 44.2% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.0% | 27.8% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Grazer AK win | 28.0% | 27.9% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.7% | 49.7% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 29.2% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 55.1% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.7% | 34.0% | -3.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Altach 35 / Grazer AK 30.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Altach vs Grazer AK in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.