Ried vs Salzburg
Bundesliga, Austria · 2026-09-11 · 19:30 CET
LDWWW
WWDWDThe score model made a Salzburg win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ried 1.01 – 1.75 Salzburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ried win | 20.7% | 16.4% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 21.6% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Salzburg win | 53.8% | 62.1% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.2% | 62.7% | -10.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.0% | 42.6% | -12.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | 59.0% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.9% | 43.9% | -3.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ried 28.2 / Salzburg 35.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ried vs Salzburg in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.