Liefering vs St. Polten
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-09-13 · 10:30 CET
WLLWL
WWWLDThe score model made a Liefering win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Liefering 1.41 – 1.39 St. Polten.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liefering win | 37.8% | 29.4% | +8.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.2% | 24.8% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| St. Polten win | 37.0% | 45.8% | -8.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 62.2% | -9.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.8% | 41.7% | -10.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 63.8% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.4% | 43.3% | -12.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Liefering 38.5 / St. Polten 38.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Liefering vs St. Polten in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.