Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctThe season in numbers
Home wins paid out more than the market charged: +25.9% at market prices across 64 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Kapfenberg produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 27.2' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
St. Polten – SK Rapid II2026-10-16 16:30Under 1.5 HTModel 72.3%Implied 57.8%▲ +14.5%- ASK Voitsberg – First Vienna2026-10-16 16:30Under 2.5Model 57.0%Implied 44.6%▲ +12.3%
- Floridsdorfer AC – Admira2026-10-17 13:30Under 2.5Model 64.3%Implied 52.1%▲ +12.2%
- Sturm Graz II – Kapfenberg2026-10-18 08:30Away winModel 32.9%Implied 28.7%▲ +4.3%
- Austria Vienna (Am) – Hertha Wels2026-10-16 16:30FT U3.5Model 71.0%Implied 67.1%▲ +3.9%
- Bregenz – Amstetten2026-10-17 13:30Over 2.5Model 66.2%Implied 63.3%▲ +2.9%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  St. Polten– SK Rapid II | 2026-10-16 | 16:30 | Under 1.5 HT | 72.3% | 57.8% | ▲ +14.5% | 1.73 |
| 2 |  ASK Voitsberg– First Vienna | 2026-10-16 | 16:30 | Under 2.5 | 57.0% | 44.6% | ▲ +12.3% | 2.24 |
| 3 |  Floridsdorfer AC– Admira | 2026-10-17 | 13:30 | Under 2.5 | 64.3% | 52.1% | ▲ +12.2% | 1.92 |
| 4 |  Sturm Graz II– Kapfenberg | 2026-10-18 | 08:30 | Away win | 32.9% | 28.7% | ▲ +4.3% | 3.49 |
| 5 |  Austria Vienna (Am)– Hertha Wels | 2026-10-16 | 16:30 | FT U3.5 | 71.0% | 67.1% | ▲ +3.9% | 1.49 |
| 6 |  Bregenz– Amstetten | 2026-10-17 | 13:30 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% | 63.3% | ▲ +2.9% | 1.58 |
Add 2. Liga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctWe simulate the remaining 2. Liga schedule 10,000 times a day. BW Linz win the 2026-2027 title in 97% of them, projecting ~69 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Kapfenberg finish in the bottom three in 76% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BW Linz | 19 | 69 | 63–76 | 97% | >99% | — |
| 2 | First Vienna | 19 | 53 | 46–61 | 2% | 75% | <1% |
| 3 | Wacker Innsbruck | 14 | 48 | 40–56 | <1% | 45% | <1% |
| 4 | Floridsdorfer AC | 13 | 48 | 40–55 | <1% | 42% | <1% |
| 5 | Admira | 12 | 47 | 39–54 | <1% | 34% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 | Sturm Graz II | 8 | 31 | 24–38 | — | <1% | 48% |
| 15 | SK Rapid II | 6 | 28 | 21–35 | — | <1% | 71% |
| 16 | Kapfenberg | 3 | 26 | 19–34 | — | <1% | 76% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 176 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/austria/2-liga/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="2. Liga live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/austria/2-liga">2. Liga stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every 2. Liga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BW Linz | 19 | 15.2 | +3.8 | |
| 2 | First Vienna | 19 | 13.2 | +5.8 | |
| 3 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 15 | 9.3 | +5.7 | |
| 4 | Wacker Innsbruck | 14 | 11.3 | +2.7 | |
| 5 |  A. Salzburg | 13 | 11.1 | +1.9 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | Hertha Wels | 7 | 9.4 | -2.4 | |
| 15 | SK Rapid II | 6 | 9.7 | -3.7 | |
| 16 | Kapfenberg | 3 | 7.9 | -4.9 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+