Bregenz vs Floridsdorfer AC
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-09-12 · 15:30 CET
LWLLD
WLWLLThe score model made a Floridsdorfer AC win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 4:0 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bregenz 0.98 – 1.82 Floridsdorfer AC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bregenz win | 20.2% | 40.6% | -20.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 27.5% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Floridsdorfer AC win | 57.1% | 31.9% | +25.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 50.4% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.9% | 29.9% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | 55.0% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.7% | 35.0% | +4.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bregenz 36.7 / Floridsdorfer AC 37.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bregenz vs Floridsdorfer AC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.