Amstetten vs Austria Vienna (Am)
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-09-11 · 18:30 CET
DLWWD
WLWWDThe score model made an Amstetten win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 4:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Amstetten 1.53 – 1.10 Austria Vienna (Am).
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amstetten win | 47.2% | 46.9% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 26.0% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Austria Vienna (Am) win | 27.4% | 27.1% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 55.3% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.0% | 34.6% | -7.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | 58.4% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.6% | 38.0% | +0.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Amstetten 38.5 / Austria Vienna (Am) 24.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.