Admira vs Kapfenberg
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-09-11 · 18:30 CET
LWWLW
LWLLLThe score model made an Admira win the most likely outcome at 62%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Admira 2.02 – 0.97 Kapfenberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Admira win | 61.9% | 50.8% | +11.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.8% | 24.0% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Kapfenberg win | 17.4% | 25.2% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | 60.8% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.1% | 40.1% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 61.6% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.0% | 41.9% | +0.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Admira 38.5 / Kapfenberg 38.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.