Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory
A-League, Australia · 2026-10-23 · 11:00 CET
LDDLL
DWDWLThe score model made a Brisbane Roar win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brisbane Roar 1.50 – 1.24 Perth Glory.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Roar win | 43.5% | 42.0% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 27.5% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Perth Glory win | 31.4% | 30.5% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 52.6% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.4% | 32.2% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | 56.7% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.0% | 35.6% | -0.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brisbane Roar 29.1 / Perth Glory 30 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.