Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory
A-League, Australia · 2026-10-18 · 04:00 CET
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DDWLLThe score model made a Melbourne Victory win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wellington Phoenix 1.27 – 1.61 Melbourne Victory.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington Phoenix win | 30.4% | 30.2% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 25.5% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Melbourne Victory win | 45.2% | 44.3% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 59.1% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.6% | 39.0% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | 61.8% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.3% | 40.4% | -1.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wellington Phoenix 30.5 / Melbourne Victory 30.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.