Macarthur FC vs Perth Glory
A-League, Australia · 2026-10-17 · 08:00 CET
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DDWDWThe score model makes a Macarthur FC win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 64.6% vs 56.3% implied (+8.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Macarthur FC 1.96 – 1.36 Perth Glory.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macarthur FC win | 51.7% | 48.2% | +3.5% |
| Draw | 21.4% | 25.5% | -4.1% |
| Perth Glory win | 26.9% | 26.3% | +0.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.6% | 56.3% | +8.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.5% | 35.7% | +6.9% |
| Both teams to score | 63.7% | 58.7% | +5.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.9% | 38.7% | +5.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Macarthur FC 29.4 / Perth Glory 29.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.