Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets
A-League, Australia · 2026-10-17 · 10:40 CET
DLDWL
LDDWDThe score model makes a Newcastle Jets win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Central Coast Mariners win — 33.7% vs 23.8% implied (+9.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Central Coast Mariners 1.54 – 1.79 Newcastle Jets.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Coast Mariners win | 33.7% | 23.8% | +9.9% |
| Draw | 22.2% | 22.6% | -0.4% |
| Newcastle Jets win | 44.1% | 53.6% | -9.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.7% | 67.0% | -2.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.6% | 47.6% | -5.0% |
| Both teams to score | 65.2% | 66.3% | -1.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.1% | 46.4% | -2.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Central Coast Mariners 29.7 / Newcastle Jets 30.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.