Auckland FC vs Melbourne City
A-League, Australia · 2026-10-17 · 06:00 CET
LDDWW
WWWWLThe score model makes an Auckland FC win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Auckland FC win — 47.3% vs 37.5% implied (+9.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Auckland FC 1.44 – 1.01 Melbourne City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auckland FC win | 47.3% | 37.5% | +9.7% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 28.6% | -2.7% |
| Melbourne City win | 26.9% | 33.9% | -7.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.5% | 47.0% | -2.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.3% | 27.1% | -3.8% |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | 52.9% | -4.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.4% | 32.2% | +3.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Auckland FC 25.9 / Melbourne City 29.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.