ES Setif vs Kabylie
Ligue 1, Algeria · 2026-10-14 · 19:00 CET
WLLWD
WDWLWThe score model makes an ES Setif win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: ES Setif 1.12 – 0.91 Kabylie.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ES Setif win | 40.2% | — | — |
| Draw | 30.8% | — | — |
| Kabylie win | 29.0% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.1% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.8% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 40.4% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 52.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.3% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: ES Setif 38.1 / Kabylie 37.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.