ASO Chlef vs MC Alger
Ligue 1, Algeria · 2026-10-13 · 18:45 CET
DDLLL
DLWWWThe score model made an MC Alger win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 28%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: ASO Chlef 0.75 – 1.07 MC Alger.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO Chlef win | 25.0% | 20.6% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 32.4% | 30.6% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| MC Alger win | 42.5% | 48.8% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 54.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27.6% | 35.7% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11.3% | 19.1% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 35.0% | 40.3% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.3% | 25.4% | -1.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: ASO Chlef 38.6 / MC Alger 36.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.