Pescara – Guidonia

Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · full time 1-1 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.23	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.56	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.29	−7.6%
Betfair (net)	3.52	−1.2%
bet365	3.40	−4.5%

€10 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

Venue	Opened	Lasted	Peak vs fair	€ at best price	Price taken	vs Pinnacle close	Result
Betfair	-17 min	7 min	+3.6%	€11	3.66	+2.8%	won

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365	Minutes above fair
Full time 1X2 · Away	4.03	4.91	4.42	3.70	0
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.23	3.56	3.52	3.40	7
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.27	1.94	1.87	1.76	0
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.71	1.90	1.87	1.68	0
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.58	2.11	1.99	1.96	0
Over/under 3.5 · Over	5.73	3.42	3.20	3.00	0
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.21	1.41	1.38	1.33	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	4.23	2.92	2.77	2.57	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.31	1.52	1.48	1.41	0
Both teams to score · No	1.78	2.37	2.08	1.96	0
Both teams to score · Yes	2.29	1.73	1.77	1.68	0

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.