italy3b · price tracker
The record since 2026-10-11: how often Betfair (net of 5% commission) or bet365 stood at least 3% above Pinnacle’s fair price for 3+ minutes in the last two hours, and what those prices were worth against Pinnacle’s close.
Matches tracked
7
Gaps flagged
2
2 settled
Mean value vs close
−4.0%
95% CI −17.4% to +9.4%
Flat-stake P/L
+6.94u
2 won of 2
By market
| Market | Matches with Betfair | Gaps / 100 | Median length | Median € | Mean value vs close | Gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full time 1X2 | 7 | 28.6 | 50 min | €18 | −4.0% | 2 |
| Over/under 2.5 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 |
| Over/under 3.5 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 |
| Half time over/under 1.5 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 |
Paper record: every flagged gap, losses included
How it is scored| Date | Match | Market · outcome | Venue | Price taken | Pinnacle fair close | Value | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Pescara – Guidonia | Full time 1X2 · Draw | Betfair | 3.66 | 3.56 | +2.8% | won · 1-1 |
| 2026-10-11 | Perugia – Vado | Full time 1X2 · Away | Betfair | 5.28 | 5.92 | −10.9% | won · 0-2 |
A small sample says little: an interval that crosses zero means “not shown yet”.
Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.