Perugia – Vado

Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · full time 0-2 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.95	ref
Pinnacle fair	5.92	ruler
Pinnacle offered	5.28	−10.8%
Betfair (net)	5.94	+0.4%

€7 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

Venue	Opened	Lasted	Peak vs fair	€ at best price	Price taken	vs Pinnacle close	Result
Betfair	-120 min	93 min	+3.2%	€24	5.28	−10.9%	won

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365	Minutes above fair
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.95	5.92	5.94	—	93
Full time 1X2 · Draw	2.90	4.00	3.61	3.40	0
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.48	1.72	1.68	—	0
Over/under 2.5 · Over	3.66	2.32	2.15	2.05	0
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.38	1.76	1.73	1.62	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.92	3.58	3.19	3.25	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.52	1.39	1.37	1.30	0
Both teams to score · No	1.56	1.81	1.77	1.62	0
Both teams to score · Yes	2.79	2.23	2.06	2.05	0

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.