How to read these numbers for a valid value bet
This page explains a method. It does not tell you what to bet, and nothing on the tracker is a tip. During the beta the tracker shows each match after kickoff, as a record of how it was priced; use it to learn how often and how long prices like these appear, not to act on them. A price can be above fair and still lose; what matters is whether your prices beat the market’s over many bets.
The yardstick is Pinnacle’s no-margin price
Nobody knows a single match’s true probability. Pinnacle’s price with its margin removed is the best public estimate, and it can be tested: across many matches its probabilities can be checked against what happened.
Valid means: the price you can get, after commission, beats the yardstick at the same moment
Compare like with like — your price net of commission against Pinnacle’s fair price in the same minute, not an hour earlier.
net = 1 + (2.20 − 1) × 0.95 = 2.14
Pinnacle fair in that minute = 2.08
2.14 ÷ 2.08 − 1 = +2.9% above fair
If Pinnacle’s fair price were 2.16, the same Betfair price would be below fair, however good 2.20 looks.
The DC line is a results-only baseline, not a signal
FC’s Dixon–Coles model is fixed before kickoff and drawn as a flat line. When it disagrees with the market, the market usually knows something the model does not — injuries, lineups, news. FC’s own research found that betting the model’s disagreements loses. It sees past scores only, so early in a season, after transfers or with key players out it can sit 10–20 points away from the market. Use it to see how far the market has moved from a results-only view.
Judge by the price, not by wins
Wins and losses take hundreds of bets to mean anything. The early check is closing-line value: did the price you took beat Pinnacle’s fair price at kickoff, on average? The tracker’s paper record is scored exactly this way.
Check how long it lasted and how much money was there
A gap you could not reach in time, or with only a few euros behind it, is not a bet you could have placed. Every gap shows its length and, for Betfair, the euros at the best price. Any price you act on must be the live price at the venue at that moment, never one from a chart.
Small, flat stakes. Never chase.
Even a real edge comes with long losing runs. Stake the same small amount every time and never raise it to win back losses.
How the paper record is scored
A gap counts when Betfair’s price, net of 5% commission, stays at least 3% above Pinnacle’s fair price for at least 3 minutes in the last two hours. Only prices with a fair price of 10.0 or shorter count: on longer odds Betfair’s price steps are wide and the fair price itself is uncertain. We record the venue’s price 2 minutes after the gap opened (time to react) and compare it with Pinnacle’s fair price at kickoff. Every flagged gap is listed, losses included, and nothing is removed afterwards. bet365 is drawn for reference but never counted: its feed can stand still for long stretches before kickoff, so an apparent gap there may be a price that was no longer on offer.
How we compute “fair”: we remove Pinnacle’s margin with the power method — each implied probability is raised to the same power so that they add up to exactly one. It takes more margin off outsiders than off favourites, which is where bookmakers put it.
Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.