Pescara vs Guidonia
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-10-12 · 20:30 CET
DWLWD
DDLWDThe score model made a Pescara win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pescara 1.28 – 0.89 Guidonia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pescara win | 44.1% | 52.7% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.0% | 25.7% | +5.3% | ✓ |
| Guidonia win | 24.8% | 21.6% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.9% | 52.7% | -15.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.5% | 31.9% | -14.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.7% | 53.7% | -9.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.6% | 35.8% | -12.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pescara 24.1 / Guidonia 29 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.