Forli – Livorno

Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · full time 1-1 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.73	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.24	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.03	−6.6%
Betfair (net)	3.09	−4.7%
bet365	2.85	−12.1%

€28 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.04	2.85	2.69	—
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.73	3.24	3.09	2.85
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.48	2.94	2.77	—
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.84	2.30	2.20	2.15
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.20	1.77	1.70	1.57
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.60	3.49	3.19	3.25
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.63	1.40	1.36	1.30
Both teams to score · No	2.42	2.08	1.95	1.79
Both teams to score · Yes	1.70	1.93	1.87	1.79

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.