Forli vs Livorno
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-10-11 · 17:30 CET
DDDLD
WDWLDThe score model made a Forli win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Forli 1.51 – 1.35 Livorno.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forli win | 40.3% | 38.4% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 28.6% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Livorno win | 32.9% | 33.1% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | 46.0% | +8.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.1% | 26.0% | +6.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | 52.2% | +6.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.5% | 32.6% | +5.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Forli 29.1 / Livorno 28.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.