Levadia – Paide

Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · full time 1-0 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	5.12	ref
Pinnacle fair	5.73	ruler
Pinnacle offered	4.90	−14.5%
Betfair (net)	5.37	−6.3%
bet365	5.00	−12.8%

€4 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

Venue	Opened	Lasted	Peak vs fair	€ at best price	Price taken	vs Pinnacle close	Result
Betfair	-117 min	98 min	+9.6%	€19	4.51	−21.2%	lost
Betfair	-17 min	7 min	+3.6%	€74	5.08	−11.3%	lost

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365	Minutes above fair
Full time 1X2 · Away	5.80	12.74	10.03	—	0
Full time 1X2 · Draw	5.12	5.73	5.37	5.00	105
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.58	1.34	1.34	—	0
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.87	1.48	1.33	1.37	0
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.15	3.09	3.66	2.75	0
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.21	1.76	1.77	1.68	0
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.45	2.32	2.14	1.96	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.42	1.93	1.85	1.83	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.71	2.07	1.97	1.88	0
Both teams to score · No	1.96	2.74	2.52	2.32	0
Both teams to score · Yes	2.04	1.57	1.59	1.49	0

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.