Levadia vs Paide
Meistriliiga, Estonia · 2026-10-11 · 13:30 CET
WWWWD
LWLWWThe score model makes a Levadia win the most likely outcome at 63%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 68.8% vs 53.4% implied (+15.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Levadia 1.94 – 0.88 Paide.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levadia win | 63.2% | 66.9% | -3.7% |
| Draw | 19.5% | 18.4% | +1.1% |
| Paide win | 17.2% | 14.7% | +2.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.5% | 66.0% | -12.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.2% | 46.6% | -15.4% |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 58.4% | -9.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.6% | 46.1% | -4.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Levadia 50.6 / Paide 50.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.