Serie A Betanohub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Botafogo RJ | 36 | 75 | 58.5 | +16.5Outperforming ++ | 3 | +4.6 | +11.9 | 0:2 vs Flamengo RJ (+2.3) | 3:2 vs Juventude (-1.7) |
2 | Fortaleza | 36 | 66 | 50.5 | +15.6Outperforming ++ | 9 | +14.5 | +1.1 | 1:2 vs Flamengo RJ (+2.3) | 5:0 vs Cuiaba (-1.5) |
3 | Vasco | 36 | 50 | 43.7 | +6.3Outperforming ++ | 13 | +7.1 | -0.8 | 1:2 vs Internacional (+2.2) | 0:4 vs Criciuma (-2.0) |
4 | Internacional | 36 | 62 | 57.1 | +4.9Outperforming | 4 | +2.7 | +2.2 | 0:1 vs Palmeiras (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Vasco (-2.0) |
5 | Vitoria | 36 | 43 | 39.5 | +3.5Outperforming | 15 | +1.0 | +2.5 | 0:2 vs Palmeiras (+2.4) | 0:2 vs Atletico GO (-1.6) |
6 | Corinthians | 36 | 55 | 51.9 | +3.1Outperforming | 7 | +5.5 | -2.5 | 0:1 vs Bahia (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Botafogo RJ (-1.6) |
7 | Flamengo RJ | 36 | 66 | 63.3 | +2.7Outperforming | 2 | -0.6 | +3.4 | 0:1 vs Cruzeiro (+1.7) | 1:2 vs Fortaleza (-2.0) |
8 | PR-Gremio | 1 | 3 | 0.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 52 | 0.0 | +2.2 | 0:2 vs Athletico (+2.2) | 0:2 vs Athletico (2.2) |
9 | PR-Juventude | 1 | 3 | 0.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 48 | 0.0 | +2.2 | 1:2 vs Athletico (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Athletico (2.2) |
10 | PR-Vitoria | 1 | 3 | 0.9 | +2.1Outperforming | 45 | 0.0 | +2.1 | 1:2 vs Athletico (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Athletico (2.1) |
11 | MG-Fluminense | 1 | 3 | 0.9 | +2.1Outperforming | 41 | 0.0 | +2.1 | 0:2 vs Atletico (+2.1) | 0:2 vs Atletico (2.1) |
12 | PR-Bragantino | 1 | 3 | 1.1 | +1.9On expectation | 36 | 0.0 | +1.9 | 1:2 vs Athletico (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Athletico (1.9) |
13 | PR-Bahia | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8On expectation | 32 | 0.0 | +1.8 | 1:3 vs Athletico (+1.8) | 1:3 vs Athletico (1.8) |
14 | PR-Sao Paulo | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8On expectation | 33 | 0.0 | +1.8 | 1:2 vs Athletico (+1.8) | 1:2 vs Athletico (1.8) |
15 | MG-Juventude | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7On expectation | 30 | 0.0 | +1.7 | 2:3 vs Atletico (+1.7) | 2:3 vs Atletico (1.7) |
16 | MG-Palmeiras | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7On expectation | 28 | 0.0 | +1.7 | 0:4 vs Atletico (+1.7) | 0:4 vs Atletico (1.7) |
17 | MG-Flamengo RJ | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6On expectation | 27 | 0.0 | +1.6 | 2:4 vs Atletico (+1.6) | 2:4 vs Atletico (1.6) |
18 | Sao Paulo | 36 | 56 | 54.4 | +1.6On expectation | 6 | +5.2 | -3.6 | 0:1 vs Cruzeiro (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Cuiaba (-2.1) |
19 | PR-Botafogo RJ | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4On expectation | 26 | 0.0 | +1.4 | 0:1 vs Athletico (+1.4) | 0:1 vs Athletico (1.4) |
20 | MG-Internacional | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4On expectation | 25 | 0.0 | +1.4 | 1:3 vs Atletico (+1.4) | 1:3 vs Atletico (1.4) |
21 | PR-Palmeiras | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4On expectation | 24 | 0.0 | +1.4 | 0:2 vs Athletico (+1.4) | 0:2 vs Athletico (1.4) |
22 | Palmeiras | 36 | 67 | 66.2 | +0.8On expectation | 1 | -1.0 | +1.8 | 1:2 vs Bahia (+1.4) | 0:2 vs Vitoria (-2.2) |
23 | MG-Criciuma | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4On expectation | 58 | 0.0 | +0.4 | 1:1 vs Atletico (+0.4) | 1:1 vs Atletico (0.4) |
24 | Juventude | 36 | 39 | 38.7 | +0.3On expectation | 17 | +4.6 | -4.3 | 1:2 vs Sao Paulo (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Cruzeiro (-1.6) |
25 | PR-Corinthians | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2On expectation | 53 | 0.0 | +0.2 | 1:1 vs Athletico (+0.2) | 1:1 vs Athletico (0.2) |
26 | MG-Fortaleza | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2On expectation | 49 | 0.0 | +0.2 | 1:1 vs Atletico (+0.2) | 1:1 vs Atletico (0.2) |
27 | MG-Vitoria | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.1On expectation | 47 | 0.0 | +0.1 | 2:2 vs Atletico (+0.2) | 2:2 vs Atletico (0.2) |
28 | MG-Cuiaba | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +0.1On expectation | 46 | 0.0 | +0.1 | 1:1 vs Atletico (+0.1) | 1:1 vs Atletico (0.1) |
29 | MG-Bahia | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +0.1On expectation | 44 | 0.0 | +0.1 | 1:1 vs Atletico (+0.1) | 1:1 vs Atletico (0.1) |
30 | Cruzeiro | 36 | 52 | 51.9 | +0.1On expectation | 8 | +1.6 | -1.6 | 0:3 vs Botafogo RJ (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Sao Paulo (-1.8) |
31 | PR-Fortaleza | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +0.0On expectation | 39 | 0.0 | +0.0 | 1:1 vs Athletico (+0.0) | 1:1 vs Athletico (0.0) |
32 | MG-Atletico GO | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | -0.0On expectation | 37 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 1:1 vs Atletico (+-0.0) | 1:1 vs Atletico (-0.0) |
33 | PR-Fluminense | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1On expectation | 35 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 1:1 vs Athletico (+-0.1) | 1:1 vs Athletico (-0.1) |
34 | PR-Flamengo RJ | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3On expectation | 29 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 1:1 vs Athletico (+-0.3) | 1:1 vs Athletico (-0.3) |
35 | PR-Criciuma | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6On expectation | 57 | 0.0 | -0.6 | 3:1 vs Athletico (+-0.6) | 3:1 vs Athletico (-0.6) |
36 | Athletico-PR | 20 | 20 | 20.6 | -0.7On expectation | 22 | +1.5 | -2.1 | 0:2 vs Palmeiras (+2.2) | 2:0 vs Gremio (-1.3) |
37 | PR-Cuiaba | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7On expectation | 56 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 4:0 vs Athletico (+-0.7) | 4:0 vs Athletico (-0.7) |
38 | MG-Botafogo RJ | 1 | 1 | 1.7 | -0.7On expectation | 23 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 0:0 vs Atletico (+-0.7) | 0:0 vs Atletico (-0.7) |
39 | PR-Atletico GO | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8On expectation | 55 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 2:0 vs Athletico (+-0.8) | 2:0 vs Athletico (-0.8) |
40 | PR-Vasco | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8On expectation | 54 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 1:0 vs Athletico (+-0.8) | 1:0 vs Athletico (-0.8) |
41 | MG-Corinthians | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8On expectation | 51 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 2:1 vs Atletico (+-0.8) | 2:1 vs Atletico (-0.8) |
42 | MG-Vasco | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8On expectation | 50 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 2:0 vs Atletico (+-0.8) | 2:0 vs Atletico (-0.8) |
43 | MG-Gremio | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9On expectation | 42 | 0.0 | -0.9 | 2:1 vs Atletico (+-0.9) | 2:1 vs Atletico (-0.9) |
44 | PR-Cruzeiro | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9On expectation | 43 | 0.0 | -0.9 | 3:0 vs Athletico (+-0.9) | 3:0 vs Athletico (-0.9) |
45 | MG-Cruzeiro | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9On expectation | 40 | 0.0 | -0.9 | 3:0 vs Atletico (+-0.9) | 3:0 vs Atletico (-0.9) |
46 | PR-Internacional | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0On expectation | 38 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 1:0 vs Athletico (+-1.0) | 1:0 vs Athletico (-1.0) |
47 | MG-Bragantino | 1 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1On expectation | 34 | 0.0 | -1.1 | 3:0 vs Atletico (+-1.1) | 3:0 vs Atletico (-1.1) |
48 | MG-Sao Paulo | 1 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2On expectation | 31 | 0.0 | -1.2 | 2:1 vs Atletico (+-1.2) | 2:1 vs Atletico (-1.2) |
49 | Criciuma | 36 | 37 | 39.3 | -2.3Underperforming | 16 | -3.4 | +1.1 | 0:4 vs Vasco (+2.2) | 2:5 vs Cuiaba (-1.6) |
50 | Atletico-MG | 20 | 22 | 24.6 | -2.6Underperforming | 21 | +1.3 | -3.9 | 1:2 vs Internacional (+1.9) | 2:1 vs Criciuma (-1.7) |
51 | Atletico | 18 | 25 | 29.9 | -4.9Underperforming | 20 | -4.9 | 0.0 | 2:1 vs MG-Sao Paulo (+1.5) | 0:2 vs MG-Fluminense (-1.8) |
52 | Gremio | 36 | 42 | 47.0 | -5.0Underperforming −− | 12 | -0.9 | -4.1 | 1:3 vs Cuiaba (+1.8) | 1:2 vs Criciuma (-1.9) |
53 | Bahia | 36 | 49 | 54.4 | -5.4Underperforming −− | 5 | +2.0 | -7.4 | 1:2 vs Botafogo RJ (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Cuiaba (-2.0) |
54 | Fluminense | 36 | 42 | 47.9 | -5.9Underperforming −− | 11 | -1.6 | -4.3 | 0:1 vs Palmeiras (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Atletico GO (-1.8) |
55 | Bragantino | 36 | 41 | 48.4 | -7.4Underperforming −− | 10 | +0.7 | -8.2 | 0:2 vs Gremio (+1.5) | 1:2 vs Atletico-MG (-1.5) |
56 | Cuiaba | 36 | 29 | 37.9 | -8.9Underperforming −− | 18 | -10.8 | +1.9 | 0:1 vs Sao Paulo (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Athletico-PR (-1.5) |
57 | Athletico | 18 | 22 | 31.0 | -9.0Underperforming −− | 19 | -9.0 | 0.0 | 1:0 vs PR-Internacional (+1.3) | 0:2 vs PR-Gremio (-2.0) |
58 | Atletico GO | 36 | 29 | 40.9 | -11.9Underperforming −− | 14 | -6.8 | -5.0 | 1:2 vs Fluminense (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Criciuma (-2.0) |
