Serie A Betanohub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Botafogo RJ | 36 | 64 | 51.3 | +12.7Outperforming ++ | 8 | +5.2 | +7.4 | 0:1 vs Palmeiras (+2.4) | 0:1 vs Cuiaba (-2.0) |
2 | Gremio | 36 | 65 | 52.5 | +12.5Outperforming ++ | 7 | +10.9 | +1.6 | 3:4 vs Botafogo RJ (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Corinthians (-2.0) |
3 | Cuiaba | 36 | 51 | 42.1 | +8.9Outperforming ++ | 14 | -4.3 | +13.2 | 0:1 vs Cruzeiro (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Corinthians (-1.6) |
4 | Internacional | 34 | 52 | 46.6 | +5.4Outperforming ++ | 10 | +2.2 | +3.2 | 1:2 vs America MG (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Cuiaba (-1.9) |
5 | Atletico-MG | 20 | 33 | 27.9 | +5.1Outperforming ++ | 21 | +1.0 | +4.1 | 0:3 vs Flamengo RJ (+2.2) | 2:0 vs Botafogo RJ (-1.6) |
6 | Athletico | 18 | 37 | 32.2 | +4.8Outperforming | 20 | +4.8 | 0.0 | 2:1 vs PR-Flamengo RJ (+1.7) | 1:2 vs PR-Gremio (-2.0) |
7 | Bragantino | 36 | 60 | 57.1 | +2.9Outperforming | 3 | +1.8 | +1.1 | 0:3 vs Fortaleza (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Fortaleza (-1.9) |
8 | Corinthians | 35 | 46 | 43.3 | +2.7Outperforming | 13 | -0.1 | +2.8 | 0:1 vs Gremio (+2.2) | 1:5 vs Bahia (-1.7) |
9 | MG-Coritiba | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | +2.5Outperforming | 58 | 0.0 | +2.5 | 1:2 vs Atletico (+2.5) | 1:2 vs Atletico (2.5) |
10 | PR-Gremio | 1 | 3 | 0.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 45 | 0.0 | +2.2 | 1:2 vs Athletico (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Athletico (2.2) |
11 | MG-Corinthians | 1 | 3 | 0.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 42 | 0.0 | +2.2 | 0:1 vs Atletico (+2.2) | 0:1 vs Atletico (2.2) |
12 | MG-Cruzeiro | 1 | 3 | 0.9 | +2.1Outperforming | 38 | 0.0 | +2.1 | 0:1 vs Atletico (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Atletico (2.1) |
13 | MG-Vasco | 1 | 3 | 0.9 | +2.1Outperforming | 37 | 0.0 | +2.1 | 1:2 vs Atletico (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Atletico (2.1) |
14 | MG-Flamengo RJ | 1 | 3 | 1.1 | +1.9On expectation | 28 | 0.0 | +1.9 | 1:2 vs Atletico (+1.9) | 1:2 vs Atletico (1.9) |
15 | Fortaleza | 36 | 53 | 52.5 | +0.5On expectation | 6 | -1.0 | +1.5 | 1:2 vs Bragantino (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Cuiaba (-1.9) |
16 | Palmeiras | 35 | 65 | 64.6 | +0.4On expectation | 1 | +2.4 | -2.0 | 3:4 vs Botafogo RJ (+1.6) | 1:2 vs Santos (-2.2) |
17 | MG-America MG | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4On expectation | 57 | 0.0 | +0.4 | 2:2 vs Atletico (+0.4) | 2:2 vs Atletico (0.4) |
18 | MG-Bragantino | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +0.1On expectation | 40 | 0.0 | +0.1 | 1:1 vs Atletico (+0.1) | 1:1 vs Atletico (0.1) |
19 | PR-Fluminense | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +0.1On expectation | 39 | 0.0 | +0.1 | 2:2 vs Athletico (+0.1) | 2:2 vs Athletico (0.1) |
20 | PR-Cruzeiro | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +0.1On expectation | 35 | 0.0 | +0.1 | 3:3 vs Athletico (+0.1) | 3:3 vs Athletico (0.1) |
21 | PR-Vasco | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +0.0On expectation | 33 | 0.0 | +0.0 | 0:0 vs Athletico (+0.0) | 0:0 vs Athletico (0.0) |
22 | PR-Fortaleza | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0On expectation | 31 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1:1 vs Athletico (+-0.0) | 1:1 vs Athletico (-0.0) |
23 | Fluminense | 36 | 55 | 55.0 | -0.0On expectation | 4 | +7.6 | -7.6 | 0:3 vs Santos (+1.8) | 0:2 vs Botafogo RJ (-1.7) |
24 | PR-Sao Paulo | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | -0.0On expectation | 30 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 1:1 vs Athletico (+-0.0) | 1:1 vs Athletico (-0.0) |
25 | MG-Palmeiras | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1On expectation | 26 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 1:1 vs Atletico (+-0.2) | 1:1 vs Atletico (-0.2) |
26 | PR-Palmeiras | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2On expectation | 25 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 2:2 vs Athletico (+-0.2) | 2:2 vs Athletico (-0.2) |
27 | PR-Bragantino | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3On expectation | 24 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 1:1 vs Athletico (+-0.3) | 1:1 vs Athletico (-0.3) |
28 | Santos | 34 | 39 | 39.3 | -0.3On expectation | 16 | -4.0 | +3.7 | 1:2 vs Palmeiras (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Fortaleza (-1.8) |
29 | Goias | 36 | 38 | 38.4 | -0.4On expectation | 17 | -3.3 | +2.9 | 0:1 vs Cruzeiro (+2.3) | 1:2 vs Coritiba (-1.6) |
30 | MG-Santos | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7On expectation | 56 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 2:0 vs Atletico (+-0.7) | 2:0 vs Atletico (-0.7) |
31 | MG-Cuiaba | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7On expectation | 55 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 1:0 vs Atletico (+-0.7) | 1:0 vs Atletico (-0.7) |
32 | MG-Goias | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7On expectation | 54 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 2:1 vs Atletico (+-0.7) | 2:1 vs Atletico (-0.7) |
33 | PR-America MG | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7On expectation | 52 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 3:2 vs Athletico (+-0.7) | 3:2 vs Athletico (-0.7) |
34 | MG-Internacional | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7On expectation | 53 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 2:0 vs Atletico (+-0.7) | 2:0 vs Atletico (-0.7) |
35 | PR-Coritiba | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7On expectation | 50 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 3:2 vs Athletico (+-0.7) | 3:2 vs Athletico (-0.7) |
36 | MG-Bahia | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7On expectation | 51 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 1:0 vs Atletico (+-0.7) | 1:0 vs Atletico (-0.7) |
37 | PR-Bahia | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7On expectation | 49 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 2:0 vs Athletico (+-0.7) | 2:0 vs Athletico (-0.7) |
38 | PR-Goias | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7On expectation | 48 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 2:0 vs Athletico (+-0.7) | 2:0 vs Athletico (-0.7) |
39 | MG-Sao Paulo | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8On expectation | 46 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 2:1 vs Atletico (+-0.8) | 2:1 vs Atletico (-0.8) |
40 | PR-Internacional | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8On expectation | 47 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 2:1 vs Athletico (+-0.8) | 2:1 vs Athletico (-0.8) |
41 | MG-Fluminense | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8On expectation | 44 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 2:0 vs Atletico (+-0.8) | 2:0 vs Atletico (-0.8) |
42 | MG-Fortaleza | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8On expectation | 43 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 3:1 vs Atletico (+-0.8) | 3:1 vs Atletico (-0.8) |
43 | MG-Gremio | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8On expectation | 41 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 3:0 vs Atletico (+-0.9) | 3:0 vs Atletico (-0.9) |
44 | PR-Cuiaba | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9On expectation | 36 | 0.0 | -0.9 | 2:0 vs Athletico (+-0.9) | 2:0 vs Athletico (-0.9) |
45 | PR-Corinthians | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9On expectation | 34 | 0.0 | -0.9 | 1:0 vs Athletico (+-0.9) | 1:0 vs Athletico (-0.9) |
46 | PR-Santos | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0On expectation | 32 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 3:0 vs Athletico (+-1.0) | 3:0 vs Athletico (-1.0) |
47 | PR-Botafogo RJ | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0On expectation | 29 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 1:0 vs Athletico (+-1.0) | 1:0 vs Athletico (-1.0) |
48 | MG-Botafogo RJ | 1 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1On expectation | 27 | 0.0 | -1.1 | 1:0 vs Atletico (+-1.1) | 1:0 vs Atletico (-1.1) |
49 | Flamengo RJ | 36 | 63 | 64.2 | -1.2On expectation | 2 | -3.4 | +2.3 | 1:2 vs Botafogo RJ (+1.7) | 1:2 vs Santos (-2.2) |
50 | PR-Flamengo RJ | 1 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4On expectation | 23 | 0.0 | -1.4 | 2:1 vs Athletico (+-1.4) | 2:1 vs Athletico (-1.4) |
51 | Sao Paulo | 36 | 52 | 53.6 | -1.6On expectation | 5 | +8.5 | -10.1 | 0:1 vs Bahia (+1.9) | 0:2 vs Atletico-MG (-1.8) |
52 | Atletico | 18 | 33 | 34.6 | -1.6On expectation | 18 | -1.6 | 0.0 | 1:0 vs MG-Botafogo RJ (+1.4) | 1:2 vs MG-Coritiba (-2.3) |
53 | Athletico-PR | 20 | 19 | 21.2 | -2.2Underperforming | 22 | -0.5 | -1.7 | 0:3 vs Flamengo RJ (+2.1) | 2:0 vs Coritiba (-1.6) |
54 | Bahia | 35 | 44 | 46.3 | -2.3Underperforming | 11 | -1.6 | -0.7 | 0:1 vs Vasco (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Santos (-2.0) |
55 | Vasco | 35 | 41 | 44.8 | -3.8Underperforming | 12 | +1.3 | -5.1 | 4:2 vs Fluminense (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Bahia (-1.9) |
56 | Cruzeiro | 36 | 43 | 49.6 | -6.6Underperforming −− | 9 | -11.2 | +4.5 | 0:3 vs Bragantino (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Goias (-2.1) |
57 | Coritiba | 34 | 24 | 33.4 | -9.4Underperforming −− | 19 | -7.0 | -2.4 | 0:3 vs America MG (+2.1) | 0:3 vs Cuiaba (-1.5) |
58 | America MG | 36 | 23 | 39.8 | -16.8Underperforming −− | 15 | -8.9 | -7.9 | 3:2 vs Bahia (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Cuiaba (-1.9) |
