Serie A Betanohub →Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Atletico | 17 | 48 | 34.3 | +13.7Outperforming ++ | 19 | +13.7 | 0.0 | 2:1 vs MG-Flamengo RJ (+1.8) | 1:2 vs MG-Fortaleza (-2.1) |
2 | Atletico GO | 35 | 50 | 40.5 | +9.5Outperforming ++ | 14 | +1.3 | +8.2 | 0:1 vs Gremio (+2.3) | 0:2 vs Athletico-PR (-1.4) |
3 | Juventude | 35 | 43 | 37.4 | +5.6Outperforming ++ | 16 | +9.0 | -3.4 | 1:0 vs Flamengo RJ (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Cuiaba (-1.5) |
4 | America MG | 35 | 52 | 47.1 | +4.9Outperforming | 10 | +2.9 | +2.0 | 3:4 vs Bahia (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Sport Recife (-1.9) |
5 | Cuiaba | 35 | 44 | 39.7 | +4.3Outperforming | 15 | +0.6 | +3.7 | 0:2 vs Palmeiras (+2.4) | 1:3 vs Palmeiras (-1.9) |
6 | Palmeiras | 35 | 62 | 58.2 | +3.8Outperforming | 2 | +0.6 | +3.2 | 1:3 vs Cuiaba (+2.2) | 0:2 vs Cuiaba (-2.2) |
7 | Ceara | 35 | 49 | 46.3 | +2.7Outperforming | 11 | +8.5 | -5.8 | 3:2 vs Gremio (+1.9) | 1:0 vs Palmeiras (-1.8) |
8 | MG-Fortaleza | 1 | 3 | 0.6 | +2.4Outperforming | 66 | 0.0 | +2.4 | 1:2 vs Atletico (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Atletico (2.4) |
9 | PR-Bahia | 1 | 3 | 0.8 | +2.2Outperforming | 59 | 0.0 | +2.2 | 0:2 vs Athletico (+2.2) | 0:2 vs Athletico (2.2) |
10 | Flamengo RJ | 35 | 69 | 66.9 | +2.1Outperforming | 1 | -0.3 | +2.4 | 1:3 vs Palmeiras (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Gremio (-2.2) |
11 | PR-Santos | 1 | 3 | 0.9 | +2.1Outperforming | 56 | 0.0 | +2.1 | 0:1 vs Athletico (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Athletico (2.1) |
12 | Fortaleza | 35 | 52 | 49.9 | +2.1Outperforming | 8 | +5.5 | -3.4 | 2:3 vs Palmeiras (+2.2) | 0:3 vs Atletico GO (-2.0) |
13 | PR-Fluminense | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8On expectation | 48 | 0.0 | +1.8 | 0:1 vs Athletico (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Athletico (1.8) |
14 | PR-Corinthians | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8On expectation | 46 | 0.0 | +1.8 | 0:1 vs Athletico (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Athletico (1.8) |
15 | Bragantino | 35 | 52 | 50.3 | +1.8On expectation | 7 | -1.8 | +3.6 | 2:3 vs Flamengo RJ (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Chapecoense-SC (-2.0) |
16 | SC-Cuiaba | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.8On expectation | 45 | 0.0 | +1.8 | 2:3 vs Chapecoense (+1.8) | 2:3 vs Chapecoense (1.8) |
17 | PR-Sao Paulo | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6On expectation | 43 | 0.0 | +1.6 | 1:2 vs Athletico (+1.6) | 1:2 vs Athletico (1.6) |
18 | SC-Sport Recife | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6On expectation | 40 | 0.0 | +1.6 | 0:1 vs Chapecoense (+1.6) | 0:1 vs Chapecoense (1.6) |
19 | SC-Bahia | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5On expectation | 38 | 0.0 | +1.5 | 0:2 vs Chapecoense (+1.5) | 0:2 vs Chapecoense (1.5) |
20 | SC-Juventude | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5On expectation | 37 | 0.0 | +1.5 | 0:2 vs Chapecoense (+1.5) | 0:2 vs Chapecoense (1.5) |
21 | SC-Santos | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4On expectation | 34 | 0.0 | +1.4 | 0:1 vs Chapecoense (+1.4) | 0:1 vs Chapecoense (1.4) |
22 | SC-Atletico GO | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4On expectation | 33 | 0.0 | +1.4 | 0:1 vs Chapecoense (+1.4) | 0:1 vs Chapecoense (1.4) |
23 | SC-Bragantino | 1 | 3 | 1.7 | +1.3On expectation | 32 | 0.0 | +1.3 | 0:3 vs Chapecoense (+1.3) | 0:3 vs Chapecoense (1.3) |
24 | SC-Fluminense | 1 | 3 | 1.7 | +1.3On expectation | 31 | 0.0 | +1.3 | 1:2 vs Chapecoense (+1.3) | 1:2 vs Chapecoense (1.3) |
25 | SC-Corinthians | 1 | 3 | 1.7 | +1.3On expectation | 30 | 0.0 | +1.3 | 0:1 vs Chapecoense (+1.3) | 0:1 vs Chapecoense (1.3) |
26 | SC-Internacional | 1 | 3 | 1.7 | +1.3On expectation | 29 | 0.0 | +1.3 | 1:2 vs Chapecoense (+1.3) | 1:2 vs Chapecoense (1.3) |
27 | Atletico-MG | 21 | 36 | 34.8 | +1.2On expectation | 18 | -0.3 | +1.5 | 0:1 vs Internacional (+1.7) | 2:1 vs Atletico GO (-1.9) |
28 | SC-Fortaleza | 1 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1On expectation | 27 | 0.0 | +1.1 | 1:2 vs Chapecoense (+1.1) | 1:2 vs Chapecoense (1.1) |
29 | SC-Palmeiras | 1 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0On expectation | 26 | 0.0 | +1.0 | 0:2 vs Chapecoense (+1.0) | 0:2 vs Chapecoense (1.0) |
30 | SC-Gremio | 1 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9On expectation | 25 | 0.0 | +0.9 | 1:3 vs Chapecoense (+0.9) | 1:3 vs Chapecoense (0.9) |
31 | PR-Palmeiras | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4On expectation | 70 | 0.0 | +0.4 | 0:0 vs Athletico (+0.4) | 0:0 vs Athletico (0.4) |
32 | Corinthians | 35 | 51 | 50.7 | +0.3On expectation | 6 | +3.4 | -3.1 | 0:1 vs America MG (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Atletico GO (-1.7) |
33 | Fluminense | 35 | 48 | 47.8 | +0.2On expectation | 9 | +8.1 | -7.8 | 0:1 vs Flamengo RJ (+2.2) | 0:2 vs Fortaleza (-1.5) |
34 | PR-Sport Recife | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2On expectation | 63 | 0.0 | +0.2 | 0:0 vs Athletico (+0.2) | 0:0 vs Athletico (0.2) |
35 | Athletico | 17 | 28 | 27.8 | +0.2On expectation | 20 | +0.2 | 0.0 | 4:2 vs PR-Gremio (+1.8) | 0:2 vs PR-Bahia (-2.0) |
36 | Santos | 35 | 44 | 44.3 | -0.3On expectation | 13 | +4.7 | -5.0 | 0:1 vs Flamengo RJ (+2.3) | 0:1 vs Atletico GO (-1.9) |
37 | PR-Bragantino | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3On expectation | 44 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 2:2 vs Athletico (+-0.3) | 2:2 vs Athletico (-0.3) |
38 | MG-Sport Recife | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4On expectation | 74 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 3:0 vs Atletico (+-0.4) | 3:0 vs Atletico (-0.4) |
39 | MG-Cuiaba | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4On expectation | 73 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 2:1 vs Atletico (+-0.4) | 2:1 vs Atletico (-0.4) |
40 | MG-Juventude | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5On expectation | 72 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 2:0 vs Atletico (+-0.5) | 2:0 vs Atletico (-0.5) |
41 | SC-Ceara | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5On expectation | 39 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 0:0 vs Chapecoense (+-0.5) | 0:0 vs Chapecoense (-0.5) |
42 | MG-Fluminense | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5On expectation | 71 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 2:1 vs Atletico (+-0.5) | 2:1 vs Atletico (-0.5) |
43 | PR-Flamengo RJ | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6On expectation | 36 | 0.0 | -0.6 | 2:2 vs Athletico (+-0.6) | 2:2 vs Athletico (-0.6) |
44 | MG-Gremio | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6On expectation | 68 | 0.0 | -0.6 | 2:1 vs Atletico (+-0.6) | 2:1 vs Atletico (-0.6) |
45 | MG-Santos | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6On expectation | 69 | 0.0 | -0.6 | 3:1 vs Atletico (+-0.6) | 3:1 vs Atletico (-0.6) |
46 | SC-America MG | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6On expectation | 35 | 0.0 | -0.6 | 1:1 vs Chapecoense (+-0.6) | 1:1 vs Chapecoense (-0.6) |
47 | MG-Ceara | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6On expectation | 67 | 0.0 | -0.6 | 3:1 vs Atletico (+-0.6) | 3:1 vs Atletico (-0.6) |
48 | MG-Corinthians | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7On expectation | 65 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 3:0 vs Atletico (+-0.7) | 3:0 vs Atletico (-0.7) |
49 | MG-Internacional | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7On expectation | 64 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 1:0 vs Atletico (+-0.7) | 1:0 vs Atletico (-0.7) |
50 | MG-America MG | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8On expectation | 61 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 1:0 vs Atletico (+-0.8) | 1:0 vs Atletico (-0.8) |
51 | PR-Cuiaba | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8On expectation | 62 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 1:0 vs Athletico (+-0.8) | 1:0 vs Athletico (-0.8) |
52 | SC-Sao Paulo | 1 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8On expectation | 28 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 1:1 vs Chapecoense (+-0.8) | 1:1 vs Chapecoense (-0.8) |
53 | MG-Bahia | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8On expectation | 60 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 3:0 vs Atletico (+-0.8) | 3:0 vs Atletico (-0.8) |
54 | MG-Atletico GO | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8On expectation | 58 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 4:1 vs Atletico (+-0.8) | 4:1 vs Atletico (-0.8) |
55 | PR-Ceara | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9On expectation | 57 | 0.0 | -0.9 | 2:1 vs Athletico (+-0.9) | 2:1 vs Athletico (-0.9) |
56 | PR-Atletico GO | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0On expectation | 55 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 2:1 vs Athletico (+-1.0) | 2:1 vs Athletico (-1.0) |
57 | MG-Bragantino | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0On expectation | 54 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 4:3 vs Atletico (+-1.0) | 4:3 vs Atletico (-1.0) |
58 | PR-Juventude | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0On expectation | 53 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 2:1 vs Athletico (+-1.0) | 2:1 vs Athletico (-1.0) |
59 | PR-Fortaleza | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0On expectation | 52 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 2:1 vs Athletico (+-1.0) | 2:1 vs Athletico (-1.0) |
60 | MG-Palmeiras | 1 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1On expectation | 51 | 0.0 | -1.1 | 2:0 vs Atletico (+-1.1) | 2:0 vs Atletico (-1.1) |
61 | MG-Sao Paulo | 1 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1On expectation | 50 | 0.0 | -1.1 | 1:0 vs Atletico (+-1.1) | 1:0 vs Atletico (-1.1) |
62 | PR-America MG | 1 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2On expectation | 49 | 0.0 | -1.2 | 1:0 vs Athletico (+-1.2) | 1:0 vs Athletico (-1.2) |
63 | PR-Internacional | 1 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2On expectation | 47 | 0.0 | -1.2 | 2:1 vs Athletico (+-1.2) | 2:1 vs Athletico (-1.2) |
64 | SC-Flamengo RJ | 1 | 1 | 2.3 | -1.3On expectation | 24 | 0.0 | -1.3 | 2:2 vs Chapecoense (+-1.3) | 2:2 vs Chapecoense (-1.3) |
65 | PR-Gremio | 1 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4On expectation | 42 | 0.0 | -1.4 | 4:2 vs Athletico (+-1.4) | 4:2 vs Athletico (-1.4) |
66 | MG-Flamengo RJ | 1 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4On expectation | 41 | 0.0 | -1.4 | 2:1 vs Atletico (+-1.5) | 2:1 vs Atletico (-1.5) |
67 | Sport Recife | 35 | 34 | 35.6 | -1.6On expectation | 17 | -1.5 | -0.1 | 1:2 vs Gremio (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Fluminense (-1.4) |
68 | Chapecoense-SC | 21 | 11 | 13.6 | -2.6Underperforming | 23 | +0.4 | -3.0 | 1:2 vs Bragantino (+2.3) | 1:0 vs Juventude (-1.1) |
69 | Athletico-PR | 21 | 19 | 22.5 | -3.5Underperforming | 21 | -1.7 | -1.8 | 0:1 vs Gremio (+2.1) | 2:1 vs Santos (-1.3) |
70 | Internacional | 35 | 45 | 52.7 | -7.7Underperforming −− | 5 | -3.4 | -4.3 | 0:4 vs Flamengo RJ (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Atletico GO (-2.1) |
71 | Bahia | 35 | 37 | 45.3 | -8.3Underperforming −− | 12 | +0.4 | -8.7 | 1:2 vs Ceara (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Sport Recife (-1.8) |
72 | Sao Paulo | 35 | 44 | 55.3 | -11.3Underperforming −− | 3 | -3.6 | -7.8 | 0:2 vs Palmeiras (+1.9) | 0:1 vs Fortaleza (-1.6) |
73 | Chapecoense | 17 | 4 | 17.1 | -13.1Underperforming −− | 22 | -13.1 | 0.0 | 2:2 vs SC-Flamengo RJ (+0.5) | 2:3 vs SC-Cuiaba (-1.4) |
74 | Gremio | 35 | 40 | 54.3 | -14.3Underperforming −− | 4 | -4.2 | -10.1 | 0:1 vs Flamengo RJ (+2.4) | 1:2 vs Sport Recife (-2.2) |
