Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC
MLS, USA · 2026-10-25 · 02:30 CET
WLDLL
DDLLLThe score model makes a Sporting Kansas City win the most likely outcome at 38%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 62.0% vs 55.8% implied (+6.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sporting Kansas City 1.60 – 1.58 Austin FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City win | 38.0% | 42.9% | -4.9% |
| Draw | 24.8% | 24.4% | +0.3% |
| Austin FC win | 37.2% | 32.6% | +4.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% | 64.6% | -3.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.3% | 44.1% | -4.8% |
| Both teams to score | 64.0% | 66.3% | -2.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.0% | 44.2% | -6.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sporting Kansas City 48 / Austin FC 48 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.