San Diego FC vs Seattle Sounders
MLS, USA · 2026-10-25 · 03:30 CET
DDLDD
WWWLDThe score model makes a San Diego FC win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 66.0% vs 52.5% implied (+13.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: San Diego FC 1.62 – 1.33 Seattle Sounders.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego FC win | 43.6% | 43.6% | -0.0% |
| Draw | 25.6% | 24.2% | +1.4% |
| Seattle Sounders win | 30.8% | 32.2% | -1.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% | 67.3% | -10.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.0% | 47.5% | -13.4% |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | 68.4% | -8.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 46.7% | -10.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: San Diego FC 37.7 / Seattle Sounders 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open San Diego FC vs Seattle Sounders in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.