Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City
MLS, USA · 2026-10-25 · 02:30 CET
LWLDW
WWWDLThe score model makes a Real Salt Lake win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 62.7% vs 57.2% implied (+5.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Real Salt Lake 1.62 – 1.48 St. Louis City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Salt Lake win | 40.5% | 36.8% | +3.7% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 25.2% | -0.1% |
| St. Louis City win | 34.4% | 38.0% | -3.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% | 62.2% | -2.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.4% | 41.7% | -4.3% |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% | 64.9% | -2.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.3% | 42.8% | -5.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Real Salt Lake 48.2 / St. Louis City 48.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.