Portland Timbers vs Charlotte
MLS, USA · 2026-10-25 · 03:30 CET
LLDLD
WLWLDThe score model makes a Portland Timbers win the most likely outcome at 38%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 62.1% vs 49.3% implied (+12.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Portland Timbers 1.56 – 1.55 Charlotte.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers win | 37.7% | 47.6% | -9.9% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 23.2% | +1.9% |
| Charlotte win | 37.3% | 29.2% | +8.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.2% | 70.9% | -10.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.9% | 50.7% | -12.8% |
| Both teams to score | 62.9% | 70.3% | -7.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.2% | 48.8% | -6.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Portland Timbers 48 / Charlotte 47.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Portland Timbers vs Charlotte in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.