Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution
MLS, USA · 2026-10-26 · 00:30 CET
WWWWD
WLLWWThe score model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 59.7% vs 53.6% implied (+6.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Philadelphia Union 2.08 – 1.17 New England Revolution.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union win | 57.7% | 58.8% | -1.2% |
| Draw | 22.0% | 21.5% | +0.5% |
| New England Revolution win | 20.3% | 19.6% | +0.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.1% | 66.3% | -3.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.9% | 45.9% | -4.9% |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | 63.4% | -2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.3% | 46.4% | -6.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Philadelphia Union 47.9 / New England Revolution 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.