Orlando City vs New York City
MLS, USA · 2026-10-26 · 00:30 CET
LLWDW
LDLLDThe score model makes an Orlando City win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Orlando City win — 44.7% vs 40.7% implied (+4.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Orlando City 1.80 – 1.48 New York City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City win | 44.7% | 40.7% | +4.0% |
| Draw | 24.0% | 24.5% | -0.5% |
| New York City win | 31.3% | 34.8% | -3.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.7% | 65.7% | -2.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.6% | 45.4% | -3.8% |
| Both teams to score | 65.1% | 67.1% | -2.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.1% | 45.9% | -1.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Orlando City 47.9 / New York City 47.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Orlando City vs New York City in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.