Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United
MLS, USA · 2026-10-25 · 02:30 CET
DLDDD
LLDDWThe score model makes a Houston Dynamo win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 67.7% vs 60.1% implied (+7.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Houston Dynamo 1.55 – 1.24 Minnesota United.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo win | 44.0% | 45.7% | -1.7% |
| Draw | 26.4% | 25.7% | +0.7% |
| Minnesota United win | 29.6% | 28.6% | +1.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 57.7% | -4.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 36.8% | -6.3% |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | 60.4% | -3.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 39.9% | -7.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Houston Dynamo 48.2 / Minnesota United 47.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.