FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes
MLS, USA · 2026-10-25 · 02:30 CET
DWLWD
DWDDDThe score model makes an FC Dallas win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 50.0% vs 44.3% implied (+5.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Dallas 2.02 – 1.42 San Jose Earthquakes.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas win | 51.1% | 54.4% | -3.3% |
| Draw | 22.6% | 22.7% | -0.1% |
| San Jose Earthquakes win | 26.3% | 22.9% | +3.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.8% | 65.0% | +1.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.0% | 44.7% | +0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 66.3% | 63.8% | +2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.0% | 44.3% | +5.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Dallas 48 / San Jose Earthquakes 47.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.