DC United vs FC Cincinnati
MLS, USA · 2026-10-26 · 00:30 CET
LDLWL
DLWLLThe score model makes an FC Cincinnati win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: DC United 1.60 – 1.86 FC Cincinnati.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| DC United win | 32.9% | — | — |
| Draw | 23.4% | — | — |
| FC Cincinnati win | 43.7% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.4% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 67.9% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.4% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: DC United 46.9 / FC Cincinnati 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open DC United vs FC Cincinnati in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.