Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps
MLS, USA · 2026-10-25 · 02:30 CET
DLDDD
DLDDWThe score model makes a Vancouver Whitecaps win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 69.5% vs 62.8% implied (+6.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Colorado Rapids 1.17 – 1.61 Vancouver Whitecaps.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids win | 27.0% | 30.4% | -3.3% |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.3% | +0.7% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps win | 46.9% | 44.3% | +2.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | 58.4% | -5.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.5% | 37.2% | -6.7% |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 61.7% | -5.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.0% | 40.4% | -3.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Colorado Rapids 47.8 / Vancouver Whitecaps 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.