Atlanta Utd vs Chicago Fire
MLS, USA · 2026-10-26 · 00:30 CET
WDLWL
WWWLLThe score model makes a Chicago Fire win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 67.2% vs 54.7% implied (+12.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Atlanta Utd 1.46 – 1.56 Chicago Fire.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Utd win | 35.1% | 39.8% | -4.7% |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.0% | +0.5% |
| Chicago Fire win | 39.4% | 35.2% | +4.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | 65.7% | -7.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.8% | 45.4% | -9.6% |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | 67.5% | -6.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 45.3% | -12.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Atlanta Utd 48.1 / Chicago Fire 48.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Atlanta Utd vs Chicago Fire in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.