New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami
MLS, USA · 2026-10-24 · 23:30 CET
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DLWWWThe score model makes an Inter Miami win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 70%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 50.7% vs 43.6% implied (+7.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: New York Red Bulls 1.58 – 2.06 Inter Miami.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls win | 29.3% | 28.9% | +0.5% |
| Draw | 22.3% | 22.3% | -0.1% |
| Inter Miami win | 48.4% | 48.8% | -0.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.4% | 75.0% | -4.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.3% | 56.4% | -7.1% |
| Both teams to score | 69.8% | 73.5% | -3.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.3% | 53.0% | -2.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: New York Red Bulls 47.9 / Inter Miami 48.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.