Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC
MLS, USA · 2026-10-24 · 21:30 CET
WWLWW
LLWDWThe score model makes a Columbus Crew win the most likely outcome at 56%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 64.0% vs 55.1% implied (+8.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Columbus Crew 1.93 – 1.10 Toronto FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew win | 56.1% | 57.8% | -1.7% |
| Draw | 23.2% | 21.4% | +1.8% |
| Toronto FC win | 20.6% | 20.8% | -0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 65.4% | -7.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.0% | 44.9% | -8.9% |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | 62.4% | -4.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.0% | 44.7% | -8.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Columbus Crew 48 / Toronto FC 48 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.