CF Montreal vs Nashville SC
MLS, USA · 2026-10-24 · 19:30 CET
LWLLD
WWWWDThe score model makes a Nashville SC win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 71.5% vs 60.1% implied (+11.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CF Montreal 0.92 – 1.78 Nashville SC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal win | 18.5% | 20.3% | -1.8% |
| Draw | 24.5% | 22.3% | +2.2% |
| Nashville SC win | 57.0% | 57.4% | -0.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | 60.5% | -9.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.5% | 39.9% | -11.4% |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 59.5% | -9.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 41.4% | -6.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CF Montreal 48 / Nashville SC 48 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open CF Montreal vs Nashville SC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.