FC Cincinnati vs DC United
MLS, USA · 2026-10-23 · 01:00 CET
DLWLL
LDLWLThe score model makes an FC Cincinnati win the most likely outcome at 61%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 70%). The data's biggest gap to the market: FC Cincinnati win — 61.5% vs 56.2% implied (+5.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Cincinnati 2.36 – 1.26 DC United.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati win | 61.5% | 56.2% | +5.3% |
| Draw | 19.9% | 21.8% | -1.9% |
| DC United win | 18.7% | 22.0% | -3.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.1% | 68.9% | +1.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.9% | 48.8% | +0.1% |
| Both teams to score | 65.3% | 66.5% | -1.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.3% | 47.3% | -3.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Cincinnati 46.9 / DC United 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FC Cincinnati vs DC United in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.