Pitea W vs AIK W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-09-13 · 14:00 CET
LDLDL
WWWLLThe score model made a Pitea W win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pitea W 1.37 – 1.20 AIK W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitea W win | 41.8% | 33.4% | +8.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 27.6% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| AIK W win | 33.7% | 39.1% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.5% | 52.4% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.9% | 31.9% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | 56.7% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.1% | 36.5% | +1.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pitea W 35.6 / AIK W 32.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Pitea W vs AIK W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.