Hacken W vs Malmo FF W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-09-06 · 15:00 CET
DWWWW
DWWLWThe score model made a Hacken W win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hacken W 1.73 – 0.95 Malmo FF W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hacken W win | 56.6% | 54.3% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.1% | 24.2% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Malmo FF W win | 21.3% | 21.5% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.1% | 57.7% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.1% | 36.2% | -8.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.6% | 56.7% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.2% | 39.2% | -5.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hacken W 35.2 / Malmo FF W 25.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.