Vittsjo W vs Uppsala W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
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LLLLLThe score model made a Vittsjo W win the most likely outcome at 74%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 5:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vittsjo W 2.60 – 0.90 Uppsala W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vittsjo W win | 74.3% | 89.5% | -15.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 14.5% | 7.8% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| Uppsala W win | 11.3% | 2.7% | +8.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.0% | 71.8% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.5% | 55.7% | -9.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.6% | 31.7% | +22.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 84.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 52.0% | 51.9% | +0.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vittsjo W 35.2 / Uppsala W 16.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.