Hammarby W vs Norrkoping W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-09-05 · 15:00 CET
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LLWLDThe score model made a Hammarby W win the most likely outcome at 79%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hammarby W 2.33 – 0.51 Norrkoping W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby W win | 79.0% | 82.0% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 14.1% | 11.9% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Norrkoping W win | 6.9% | 6.1% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.9% | 70.5% | -16.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.6% | 52.3% | -20.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 35.3% | 48.2% | -12.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.1% | 49.9% | -0.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hammarby W 35.2 / Norrkoping W 34.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.