Djurgarden W vs Rosengard W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-09-05 · 14:00 CET
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WWLWLThe score model made a Rosengard W win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Djurgarden W 1.31 – 1.57 Rosengard W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Djurgarden W win | 32.7% | 40.4% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.0% | 27.0% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Rosengard W win | 44.3% | 32.6% | +11.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 55.4% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.6% | 35.0% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 58.7% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 37.8% | -4.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Djurgarden W 35.2 / Rosengard W 35.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.